The Second Great Wall of China

Reading Martin Jacques’ “When China Rules the World” during a week when the New York Times’ website was taken offline in China after it published claims about the wealth of Wen Jiabao. News about Mr. Wen’s alleged fortune of £1.7bn was characterized by the Chinese as a “smear” and resulted in news blackout on the subject. The BBC was similarly off air for months after its detailing of the Bo Xilai case.

 

Jacques’ well-documented book shows China as a “civilization state” that the West will not be able to challenge in its essential ideals based on 2,000 years of civilization and then Confucianism. The desire of its people – massed in a vast area with one-third of the world’s population – for solid government and their Confucian appetite for family connections leads many to believe that their form of government and control is the only way for China and that the rest of the world will not be able to change it.

 

The Wall of Legalism

 

Francis Fukuyama in his excellent book “The Origins of Political Order” http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Origins-Political-Order-Revolution/dp/1846682576/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1351345981&sr=8-1on focused how the origins of the rule of law was central to the proper governing of a state. Success, where no government or leader was above the law, is contrasted with such states as China, where, except for brief period, the ruling elite has been above the law.

 

Many believe that a state with Confucianism on the outside and Legalism on the inside is how China is governed today. Legalism, a creed formulated and emerging properly in the Warring States Period up to 221bc, seeks to ensure that strict laws keep dissent down and people equal. The Emperor was in place because of the law and was above it – but had to be flexible in intent to ensure that the leading cliques were satisfied.

 

Coming forward 200 years and the so-called Communist Party has assumed the role of Emperor. A Communist Party that that no longer believes in Communism but in power from the centre; that not just tolerates corruption but uses it throughout China to keep its leading cliques in check; that exports corruption to its supply-chain (its raw materials suppliers) throughout the word in order to keep them sweet; that deals harshly with any dissent and criticism; that only reacts to the worst crimes and then only when it has to (such as with Bo Xilai – who became too much of a burden).

 

Legalism as a creed best describes the current Chinese government style – no longer driven by the equality of Communism – where a ruling elite has taken over the State and drives it according to their own requirements.

 

The post-World War II political and economic direction of the West has been democracy and capitalism. Human rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights http://www.un.org/en/documents/udhr/index.shtml has been a solid framework on which political thought has been based. The development of the European Union (notwithstanding economic upsets through the Euro) was based on this political fulcrum and a liberal economic system.

 

This post-war consensus in the West has also been the basis on which we have tried to hold the rest of the world to account – to develop democracy and capitalism on a worldwide basis.

 

No use for Wallpaper

 

Now, the western consensus is threatened by China. Having taken the economic principle of capitalism and thrown the centralized system of communism into the gutter, the Chinese are rapidly gaining economic muscle. This was not surprising once the shackles of the communist economic model was broken and Deng XiaoPing was able to redirect the Chinese to a better economic future.

 

This had already had enormous impact in China as wealth has increased and will continue to do so. But, a country with huge numbers of people but limited natural resources (apart from their own intelligence and rare earth minerals) has to then engage with the rest of the world in order to maintain that direction of travel.

 

This is now breaking down the political and governance consensus that the West has tried for the last sixty-seven years to impose. What does this mean? It means that the Chinese are overturning the route to democracy and democratic institutions. It means that elites in developing countries now have huge financial backing from the Chinese – through sales of raw materials to China and through the fact that they are witnessing another political model.

 

The West cannot wallpaper over the political cracks in the political wall. While capitalism is clearly now shown to be the best worst system of improving our material wealth, democracy is no longer the only political product on sale. After the bloody years of fighting against communism and fascism, which World War II was supposed to have won, the challenge is not so much religious fundamentalism (which we have been understandably so fearful of) but the enormous influence that China will have on a world where the most serious challenge to democracy is arising.

 

Taking a brick from the Wall

 

The battle for ideas is just starting. China needs a healthy west and a healthy India and Brazil and rest of Asia and it needs the raw materials from across the planet. Apart from the environmental catastrophes that are likely to be exacerbated by the drive for material growth (upon which the Chinese legalist approach relies in order to keep its people happy), the influence of Chinese political thought is likely to grow exponentially.

 

Recent riots in Ningbo –   http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-20109743 – against a chemical plant expansion and the Chinese authorities’ methods of dealing with it (which includes the hiding of road signs so that journalists won’t find their way to the riots!) are a simple sign that Tiananmen Square was by no means a low point.

 

As the world waits for the US Presidential election, a change of at least equal importance will be taking place in Beijing and no-one will know who has come out on top until the new politburo of the Chinese Communist Party is unveiled around 15 November.

 

Not that this will change anything. In the US, the economics will be substantially changed by the possible election of Romney and (Ayn Rand influenced) Paul Ryan. The political system will not change.

 

In China, nothing will change and the political, legalist system will continue internally and externally. This is a continuing challenge that is currently seen as economic but will eventually be seen as dramatically political and on a world scale. For Chinese economic growth will challenge the democratic ideals built up by the West and hard fought for by millions. It is now ranged against 2,000 years of Chinese centralism legalism.

 

How (or if) the West reacts to this will be a far bigger story than the economics – and arguments over tariffs and who owns Treasury bonds. We need to start taking the brick from the Wall before it is built around us.

Good Global Citizenship and Tax Havens

Barclays was cornered this week in the UK by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs into paying back around £500 million for entering into a tax avoidance scheme – despite signing up to a Government scheme not to do such things. Bob Diamond now looks foolish after his vow to make Barclays a good citizen.

For many years, it has been “OK” for companies and high income earners to shield their earnings behind tax avoidance schemes. Since the introduction of welfare states across the world, companies and individuals have sought to minimize the tax that society needs to work through the system. They have systematically sought to challenge the efforts of democracies to manage the tax base. In some countries like Greece, there has been a tacit buy-in by Governments (and those in Government with their fingers in the till) to allow tax to go unpaid. This leads inexorably to financial chaos and, as we now see in Greece, to progressive civil strife and poverty. This is what has happened in Africa for so long – the wealthy shield their income from the State (who are paid off to look away).

In those countries which do make a real effort to collect taxes, the best tax avoidance comes through the use of tax havens and the real killer for economic equity is the way the world accepts tax havens as a reasonable and acceptable part of our global economy.

David Cameron and many others talk a lot about fairness: the fairness that makes bankers bonuses almost a criminal offence. But, this is two-faced. While George Osborne says that the HMRC will work towards killing off general tax avoidance schemes, we have in our midst a main centre of tax avoidance – the City of London.

Nicholas Shaxson wrote brilliantly in his book “Treasure Islands” about the tax havens that bedevil the world of finance and economics. Tax havens distort, they do not equalize.  Tax havens provide the wealthy (individuals and corporates) alongside the wealthy criminals and wealthy terrorists with the ability to shield themselves from legitimate taxation. Providing a legitimacy to tax havens (and allowing them to proliferate worldwide – even shielding them as the UK does the Cayman Islands and elsewhere) creates massive market distortions and inequalities. Legitimate and democratic tax collection is continuously stymied by the tax havens – just a step from the wealth-grabbing in Angola or the tax avoidance mentality that is Greece.

Taxation is a central plank of democratic society.  While the Tea Party and similar libertarians might rage against central government tax and tax collections as a scourge of society, we know that society is centred on a democratic ideal of the wealthy properly financing the society on which it depends to provide a basic source of welfare to the poor and sick, for defence, for infrastructure. Society is more than just the wealthy and privileged creating an elite life. Angola is a good example of how fortunate elites manipulate the wealth of a nation to appropriate its total wealth and Sonangol (its so-called publicly owned oil company – really commanded by its country’s leadership who reap its financial benefits) has been built to achieve the grabbing of oil and energy wealth from the citizens.

The nations that democratically elect their leaders (and, it is to be hoped the new rich of China and Brazil and others) should take heed to the dangers posed by the examples of the wealth grabbers in the energy-rich nations. It is here, in the UK (City of London, Jersey), the USA (such as the state of Delaware) as well as the better known haunts of the Dutch Antilles or the Cayman Islands, where huge financial flows (from the legitimate wealthy alongside the illegitimate) travel in order to reduce the legitimate tax take of the countries in which the wealth is created. Tax havens are wealth destroyers.

Wealth is destroyed by tax havens because they eat away at the main body of a nation – its mass of people, its true wealth creators. Education and education systems suffer dramatically because taxation is unavailable to finance schools. Health systems suffer for the same reasons – in the UK, where we have moved vast sums to the NHS in the last Government, cut-backs are now biting as the tax take is diminished along with economic growth. In poorer countries, the wealth shift is much more dramatic.

Ambassador Nancy Soderberg (appointed by President Obama earlier this year) was in London this week to campaign for Argentina to live up to its duties in economic areas. She mentioned its lack of adherence to the Financial Action Task Force  (FATF) requirements for responsible national supervision of illegal financing – Argentina was placed on FATF’s grey list over corruption issues. But, FATF and other international bodies have failed to oversee a sustained reduction in how financial flows travel the world and to institute a level of good citizenship on a worldwide scale amongst our companies and wealthy individuals.

While steps have been taken to reduce terrorist financing and, to a much smaller extent, the benefits of illegal drug trafficking and gambling and prostitution, very minor shifts have been made in (a) defining what global good citizenship means (b) reducing tax havens and the financial flows through them.

The G20 states from time to time that tax havens are to be reduced in scope but the battle against them has hardly started. Tax avoidance on a grand scale is as bad as grand corruption (maybe bigger in scale): two sides of the same coin. Good global citizenship requires a new definition to be made – where a global consensus is sought to reduce hugely the ability of companies and individuals to create their wealth in one place and move it offshore to save tax. This simple example of good global citizenship is a cornerstone to increasing wealth creation on a wider scale. It is not socialism but realism and pragmatism. It is good citizenship.